Prepare me for CPI. I want the analysis and playbook for Gold and NQ

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XAUUSD PLAYBOOK

XAUUSD playbook

CPI YY, NSA

2026-09-11 · 12:30 · USA

Forecast

3.4

Range

3.3 – 3.8

Poll

3.4

XAUUSDStrong neutral

US CPI is a high-impact, dollar-driving release; gold is quoted in USD, so per correlation rule 2 the setup is structurally important for XAUUSD.

Playbook

Impact on XAUUSD

Above

MAX3.8Very Bearish
3.6Bearish

On forecast

BANK3.4Ranging
FORECAST3.4Ranging
MRKT3.4Ranging

Below

3.35Bullish
MIN3.3Very Bullish

A higher than expected reading signals economic weakness and is typically bearish for the currency. A lower reading suggests strength, supporting the currency. Watch for revisions to prior data which can amplify market moves.

CPI prints Friday 2026-09-11, 8:30 AM ET — consensus 3.4% YoY (matching prior), core 2.4%, MoM 0.4% vs prior 0.1%. Markets are neutral ahead of the print.

How to prepare:

Gold (XAUUSD) — currently bullish at 4,366 with target 4,470, pullback 4,340:

Hot CPI (≥3.6%): bearish gold via Fed hike repricing and stronger dollar through real yields — watch 4,340 support to break; below that opens 4,312 zone.
In-line (3.4%): neutral — gold stays range-bound 4,340–4,470 as oil/geopolitics drive more than the data.
Cool CPI (≤3.35%): bullish gold as rate-hike fears ease and dollar weakens — target 4,470, then resistance 4,459–4,470 cluster.

Nasdaq 100 (NQUSD) — currently bullish at 29,227 with target 29,550, pullback 29,050:

Hot CPI (≥3.6%): bearish NQ via discount-rate shock and September hike repricing — watch 29,050 support; break targets 29,000 psychological.
In-line (3.4%): neutral to mildly bullish — AI earnings momentum carries the index toward 29,333–29,365 resistance, oil pressure caps upside.
Cool CPI (≤3.35%): bullish NQ as rate fears ease — target 29,550, then 29,680 resistance zone as growth optimism returns.

XAUUSD SENTIMENTLIVE

Gold holds near $4,400 as easing oil prices temper Fed hike fears

4,366▼-0.65%DAYBullish

XAUUSD1h30m15m5mEDT

Live & interactive in the MRKT app

Why is the day sentiment leaning bullish?

Because Easing Middle East tensions ease oil-driven inflation and rate hike fears, Potential Fed hold if core inflation extends recent progress, Escalating trade wars raise growth risks and future easing expectations and Kuwait and Iraq moves signal future relief for crude supply are doing the lifting.

Easing Middle East tensions ease oil-driven inflation and rate hike fearsKEY

Recent de-escalation in Gulf conflicts lowers oil prices, softening inflation expectations and reducing Fed hike bets.

Potential Fed hold if core inflation extends recent progressKEY

Waller’s conditional support for keeping rates steady if inflation improves bolsters expectations that the tightening cycle is near its peak.

NQUSD SENTIMENTLIVE

Nasdaq 100 holds range as AI strength battles $100 oil, CPI

29,227▼-0.82%DAYBullish

NQUSD1h30m15m5mEDT

Live & interactive in the MRKT app

Why is the day sentiment leaning bullish?

Because AI mega-cap earnings and data-center demand support Nasdaq bids, Qualcomm-Amazon AI chip and AWS equity deal boosts sentiment, Investors treat US mega-cap tech as relative haven amid conflicts and China inflation data shows moderate consumer prices, supporting global demand hopes are doing the lifting.

AI mega-cap earnings and data-center demand support Nasdaq bidsKEY

Strong recent AI chip and cloud results keep growth investors committed to Nasdaq heavyweights.

Qualcomm-Amazon AI chip and AWS equity deal boosts sentimentKEY

A multi-year custom AI chip partnership and Amazon’s equity warrant reinforce confidence in tech spending.

Watch: Both are in reversal risk — gold's flip trigger is Brent near $100 on Hormuz supply fears (currently easing); NQ's flip is the oil/inflation shock repricing Fed odds. If CPI surprises hot and oil climbs into the print, both assets gap down into their pullback zones within the first hour.

NQUSD PLAYBOOK

NQUSD playbook