Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Fundamental + Technical Analysis

Table of Contents

1. Market Overview
2. Higher Time Frame Structure
3. High Time Frame Trade Scenarios
4. Year-End Dynamics & Risk Factors

1. Market Overview

Bitcoin continues to trade within a range, showing no meaningful directional commitment despite a macro backdrop that would typically support upside. Dovish Federal Reserve commentary during the last FOMC meeting have failed to generate sustained follow-through, leaving price action compressed and indecisive.

This lack of response is itself a signal: the market is waiting, not reacting.

2. Higher Time Frame Structure

On the higher time frame, Bitcoin remains in a corrective bearish structure following its peak near the 126k all-time high.
The aggressive decline toward the 80k region, triggered by short-term hawkish Fed signals in November, marked the start of the current consolidation phase.

Since then:

• Price has failed to establish higher highs
• Rallies continue to stall below range resistance
• Structure remains neutral-to-bearish until proven otherwise

The trend has paused, but it has not reversed.

3. High Time Frame Trade Scenarios

From a HTF perspective, there are only two rational approaches:

Scenario 1: Breakout Confirmation

• Price accepts above the range high
• Buyers enter on confirmed structure shift
• Risk defined below the reclaimed range

Scenario 2: Range-Low Re-Entry, Pullback Level of MRKT

• Price revisits the 80k region (or marginally below)
• Liquidity sweep fuels renewed demand
• Long exposure considered at discounted levels

Anything in between is noise.

4. Year-End Dynamics & Risk Factors

As the year closes, profit-taking remains a dominant force.
This often suppresses upside momentum and increases the probability of final downside probes before genuine positioning resumes.

Key considerations:

• Reduced liquidity into year-end
• Portfolio rebalancing by large players
• Increased volatility around thin order books