BTCUSD Fundamental Analysis + Technical Analysis - 04 December 2025

Bitcoin Holds $93K as Fed Cut Expectations Rise; All Eyes on Key US Data

Bitcoin remains resilient above the $93K region, supported by rate-cut expectations for the December FOMC while BoJ tightening risks and year-end liquidity constraints continue to shape risk appetite. MRKT’s real-time drivers highlight a mixed but slightly bullish backdrop heading into a packed macro week.

1. Higher-Timeframe Bias, Slightly Bullish

On the higher timeframe, Bitcoin continues to stabilize after recovering from last week’s volatility, supported by renewed institutional inflows from BlackRock IBIT and Vanguard’s re-entry into the crypto space. Price has held comfortably above the $80K floor for several sessions, and five consecutive days of net inflows have helped prevent deeper retracements.

However, the path forward isn’t fully clear. The December macro visibility gap, with FOMC on Dec 9–10 followed by CPI on Dec 18, creates an environment where conviction is limited and liquidity remains thin. Meanwhile, the $98K–$100K zone continues to act as an overhead magnet and historical cost basis for long-term holders, meaning bulls are still likely to challenge it once macro uncertainty clears.

Despite these headwinds, the broader structure remains constructive, and MRKT’s higher-timeframe model continues to register a slightly bullish bias fueled by ETF flows, whale accumulation, and easing Fed expectations.

2. Intraday Bias, Slightly Bullish

Intraday, Bitcoin has shown impressive stability, holding above $93K after rebounding nearly 10% from Monday’s deep $84K washout. The soft ADP employment print (-32K) boosted rate-cut expectations back toward the 88–89% region, lifting risk appetite across crypto and supporting BTC demand into the NY session.

Even so, upside momentum remains fragile. The BoJ is expected to raise rates in December, creating potential yen-carry unwind pressure, historically a driver of short-term risk-off flows in Bitcoin. Year-end liquidity conditions also remain unusually shallow, meaning any shift in macro tone could have an outsized impact on price.

Still, MRKT’s intraday model keeps BTC “slightly bullish,” with ETF AUM expanding, institutional positioning improving, and on-chain metrics signaling that accumulation remains the dominant behavior on dips.

3. Macro Path Scenarios (From MRKT’s Macro Model)

Upside triggers → Move toward $95,695

• Fed speakers maintain dovish tone
• Job cuts improve → labor softens → rate-cut narrative strengthens
• Initial jobless claims exceed 220K
• PCE inflation misses consensus → weaker USD
• EMU GDP misses → global risk-on rotation

Downside triggers → Move toward $90,400

• Hawkish Fed tone
• Higher jobless claims hurt sentiment
• Job cuts miss expectations
• PCE inflation beats consensus → USD strengthens
• EMU GDP beats → global risk-off rotation

4. Technical Outlook, BTCUSD

Bitcoin continues to press into the 93–94K resistance zone, where intraday momentum has stalled. The broader structure still favors bullish continuation as long as price holds above key demand levels, but upcoming macro catalysts (Fed speeches, job data, PCE) will dictate whether BTC breaks out or pulls back first.

Two clean paths stand out:

• Bullish pullback scenario:
  If BTC dips toward $89,000, this zone aligns with prior accumulation and intraday demand. A clean reaction here could offer a high-probability continuation setup targeting the 94K → 100K region.
• Breakout continuation scenario:
  If BTC breaks and secures a retest above $94,000, momentum traders may look for continuation buys toward the psychological $100K zone, which also matches the next higher-timeframe resistance cluster.
• Invalidation / bearish case:
  If macro data comes in hawkish and BTC loses $89K, deeper liquidity pockets sit toward 86K–85K, where sentiment would shift defensively and momentum would likely stall.

BTC remains reactive to headlines, so real-time data shifts on MRKT will be crucial to validate whichever scenario unfolds.

5. Closing Outlook

Bitcoin enters one of December’s most important macro windows. With Fed speakers, PCE inflation, and labor data all scheduled within the week, the next move will be entirely data-driven. MRKT remains essential for navigating this environment, giving traders real-time shifts in rate-cut expectations, ETF flows, liquidity conditions, and automated intraday bias updates.