Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. Why Today’s Cut Could Be Hawkish
3. SEP Projections: What Markets Need to Watch
4. Powell’s Speech: Tone, Data, and Market Sensitivity
5. Monitoring the Press Conference in Real Time
6. Conclusion

Introduction

Today’s FOMC meeting is one of the final heavyweight catalysts driving US markets into the new year.
Although a 25bps cut is widely anticipated, traders are assuming something far more influential: the possibility of a “hawkish cut.”

Why Today’s Cut Could Be Hawkish

Despite easing today, several elements support a more cautious tone:

• The labor market hasn’t weakened as fast as previously assumed.
• Inflation remains elevated and inconsistent across categories.
• Fed officials continue to emphasize the risk of easing prematurely.
• A firmer economic backdrop reduces urgency for multiple cuts.
• Market expectations remain more dovish than the Fed’s guidance.

Implication: The Fed may deliver the cut, but the messaging will likely lean toward slowing down, not accelerating, further easing.

SEP Projections: What Markets Need to Watch

The Summary of Economic Projections will steer the market narrative far more than the rate cut itself.
Key focus areas include:

• Long-term neutral rate (previously ~2.75%–3%)
• Inflation path expectations
• Growth and labor market projections
• Changes in the policy rate trajectory

This is also where MRKT becomes especially valuable:

📌 During the SEP release, you can instantly track the live headlines, view a structured breakdown of each line item, and assess the potential market impact in real time.
This provides a clean, fast interpretation without needing to jump through multiple data sources.

Powell’s Speech: Tone, Data, and Market Sensitivity

Powell’s press conference remains the single most market-moving moment of the day.

Scenario 1: Dovish (Less Likely)

• Emphasis on “further cooling” in the labor market
• Acknowledges progress on inflation
• Market reaction: USD weakens, equities/commodities rally

Scenario 2: Neutral to Hawkish (More Likely)

• Highlights ongoing inflation risks
• States that the economy is still resilient
• Suggests no immediate need for another cut
• Market reaction: USD strengthens, risk assets pull back, year-end profit-taking accelerates

👉 Here too, MRKT adds an advantage: as Powell speaks, the live headline feed allows traders to see each key phrase parsed, categorized, and labeled with expected market impact, giving you instant clarity as tone shifts.

Monitoring the Press Conference in Real Time

Volatility during Powell’s Q&A can flip sentiment within seconds.

This is where many traders get caught off-guard, but integrating real-time data tools helps cut through the noise.

📌 With MRKT you can follow the headline stream during the Powell press conference, seeing each headline broken down and tagged for directional impact.
This gives traders a cleaner read on the tone shift without waiting for delayed commentary.

Conclusion

Today’s FOMC meeting sets the tone for the end of 2025 and start of 2026.
The cut itself is not the story, the projections and Powell’s tone will dictate market reaction.
Whether the Fed leans hawkish or neutral, traders must prepare for heavy liquidity, sharp volatility, and rapid repricing across major assets.

With SEP shifts, live headlines, and Powell’s commentary moving markets second-by-second, having structured real-time insight becomes essential for navigating the reaction.