GBPJPY (GJ) Fundamental + Technical Analysis 18 November 2025

Introduction

GBPJPY continues to trade within a broader bullish trend, supported by diverging central bank stances between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE).
With Japan’s latest GDP reading weaker and the BoJ maintaining accommodative measures, the yen remains under sustained pressure. Meanwhile, the UK economy is showing softness, but the BoE’s reluctance to cut rates keeps monetary conditions relatively tighter, supporting pound strength.

Table of Contents

1. Fundamental Drivers Shaping GBPJPY

2. What to Expect from UK CPI

3. MRKT Insight: Projected Pullback Zones

4. Trading Scenarios to Watch

5. Conclusion + Final CTA

1. Fundamental Drivers Shaping GBPJPY

• BoJ remains dovish: Continued commitment to accommodative measures weaken JPY.
• Japan’s weaker GDP: Recent softness pushes JPY further into a vulnerability area.
• BoE stance remains hawkish: Despite weak UK data, reluctance to cut rates faster supports GBP.
• Low-impact day today: No major GBP or JPY releases on the calendar.
• Tomorrow’s UK CPI: A potential volatility trigger that could reinforce GBP strength if inflation runs hot.

2. What to Expect from UK CPI (Tomorrow)

MRKT expects a possible decrease in the inflation figure and if the data actually comes out from the previous data these are the possible consequences:

• Reinforce expectations that the BoE will cut rates in December;
• The data would weaken GBP across the board

This is the key catalyst for the week.

3. MRKT Insight: Projected Pullback Zones

MRKT’s model has already projected a main pullback level which also meets with

• Pullback level: ~203.0
• Bullish target: ~205

The pullback level aligns with liquidity zones and H4 demand footprint, suggesting potential accumulation areas before the next leg up.

4. Trading Scenarios to Watch

Bullish Scenario:

• Price pulls back toward 203.0–203.8;
• Buyers step in from structural demand;
• Continuation toward higher range levels;

Neutral Scenario:

• Price consolidates ahead of UK CPI;
• Market awaits confirmation from inflation data;

Bearish Scenario (low probability today):

• Break below 203.0;
• Structure shifts into corrective mode, not a full trend reversal;

5. Conclusion

GBPJPY remains fundamentally and technically supported, with tomorrow’s UK CPI acting as the key catalyst for potential continuation. Until then, the bullish structure remains intact, especially while price respects the 203.0–203.8 demand region.