Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. Macro Drivers Shaping GBPUSD
3. Market Structure: Why Sterling Remains Firm
4. Trading Scenarios for Powell’s Speech
5. Conclusion

1. Introduction

GBPUSD continues to trade within a firm bullish environment as traders price in two diverging monetary policy paths: the Federal Reserve moving toward a potential December rate cut, and the Bank of England maintaining a steady stance. This divergence is creating a structurally supportive backdrop for the Pound.

With today’s focus on Jerome Powell’s speech and the US manufacturing PMIs, volatility is likely to expand.

2. Macro Drivers Shaping GBPUSD

• Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, softening the USD.
• The BoE’s likely decision to hold rates steady reinforces sterling resilience.
• UK Manufacturing PMI held near 50.2, showing stability but minimal directional influence.
• Market makers are keeping GBPUSD biased bullish on both intraday and higher timeframes.
• Risk sentiment remains constructive, further weighing on the USD.

3. Market Structure: Why Sterling Remains Firm

Price action recently formed a double bottom around the 1.304 zone, followed by a daily close above 1.319, signaling higher-time-frame buyer strength.
However, after breaking above the neckline, the pair entered sideways consolidation, suggesting liquidity collection ahead of a catalyst-driven breakout.

Key events likely to dictate intraday direction:

• Powell’s Speech — dominant driver; tone will set USD direction
• US ISM & S&P Manufacturing PMI — moderate sensitivity

A dovish or neutral Powell = bullish GBPUSD
A hawkish Powell (pushing back December cut) = downside break risk

4. Trading Scenarios for Powell’s Speech

Scenario 1 — Dovish/Neutral Powell

• USD weakens
• GBPUSD breaks above consolidation highs
• Higher-time-frame bullish continuation resumes

Scenario 2 — Hawkish Powell

• USD strengthens short-term
• GBPUSD breaks above consolidation lows

5. Conclusion

GBPUSD remains poised for expansion as structural bullish foundations meet today’s high-impact Fed catalyst. A dovish Powell may unlock the next leg higher, while a hawkish stance could break the range’s lower boundary.
Staying adaptive and tracking live sentiment changes, especially through tools like MRKT, helps traders navigate these liquidity-heavy conditions with precision.