GOLD - XAU/USD (GC) : Fundamental + Technical Analysis - 09 January 2026

Table of Contents

1. Macro Drivers Supporting Gold
2. Labor Market and Fed Expectations
3. Market Structure and Price Action
4. Trade Scenarios Into NFP

Macro Drivers Supporting Gold

Gold continues its strong bullish run, supported by a combination of macro and geopolitical tailwinds.
Persistent geopolitical tensions, alongside market pricing for deeper rate cuts in 2026 than previously projected by the Federal Reserve, continue to underpin demand for defensive assets.

Recent commentary from several Federal Reserve officials has leaned increasingly dovish, with some policymakers openly discussing the need for 100–150 basis points of easing if economic conditions continue to soften.
This shift has reinforced the medium-term bullish narrative for gold.

Labor Market in Focus

Attention is now firmly on the US labor market.
Earlier data, including weaker JOLTS job openings, has already signaled a cooling in labor demand, adding pressure to the Fed’s outlook and increasing sensitivity around upcoming employment releases.

With NFP scheduled later in the New York session, investors remain cautious, opting to stay sidelined rather than aggressively add risk ahead of a high-volatility catalyst.

Market Structure and Price Action

From a technical perspective, market structure remains decisively bullish.

After a brief pullback toward the 4400s, buyers stepped back in aggressively, reinforcing the trend.
Price has since pushed higher and is now trading in the mid-4470s, breaking above a prior supply zone near 4464, where sellers had previously emerged.

The recent pause in momentum appears less like distribution and more like temporary consolidation, driven by positioning ahead of NFP rather than a shift in trend.

Both higher-timeframe and intraday structure on MRKT remain aligned to the upside, maintaining a bullish bias.

Trade Scenarios Into NFP

Given current conditions, flexibility remains key.

Bullish Continuation Scenario

• Retest and hold above the 4463 support zone
• Acceptance above 4479 highs
• Opens the path toward the 4500 psychological target, aligned with intraday MRKT target.
• Particularly favored if labor data prints weak or confirms labor market softening

Bearish Adaptation Scenario

• Strong or optimistic labor data shifts expectations
• A sustained break below $4444
• Deeper pullback toward the $4408 area, corresponding to the prior day’s low
• This would be treated as corrective unless higher-timeframe structure breaks