GOLD - XAU/USD (GC): Fundamental + Technical Analysis - 22 December 2025
Table of Contents
- Macro Drivers Behind Gold Strength
- Policy Expectations and Gold Demand
- Geopolitics and Central Bank Flows
- Price Action and Market Structure
- Trade Idea: Momentum Continuation Play
Macro Drivers Fueling the Upside
Gold opened the week with strong upside momentum, supported by a clear shift in macro conditions.
Cooling inflation, a weakening US labor market, and growing expectations for more aggressive rate cuts in 2026 than previously projected have combined to reinforce demand for non-yielding assets.
Markets are increasingly challenging the Federal Reserve’s prior SEP assumptions, repricing policy expectations as economic data continues to soften. This environment has kept gold structurally supported, with buyers remaining active on even shallow pullbacks.
Policy Expectations and Structural Demand
Beyond rate expectations, central bank gold accumulation continues to provide a strong underlying bid.
These steady flows limit downside risk and reinforce gold’s role as a strategic hedge amid macro uncertainty.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions ,particularly rising friction between Venezuela and the US, have added another layer of support, increasing demand for defensive assets.
Price Action and Market Structure
At the time of writing, gold is trading at around $4407, maintaining a strong bullish structure.
From here, continuation toward the $4430s remains possible before any profit-taking emerges.
Importantly, waiting for deep pullbacks in this environment often leads to missed participation.
When gold attracts demand, price expansions tend to be fast and aggressive, leaving little opportunity for late entries.
Trade Idea: Momentum Continuation Play
With gold maintaining strong upside momentum, the preferred approach remains buying above key levels on the lower time frame rather than waiting for deep pullbacks, which often fail to materialize in this environment.
Primary Scenario
- Bullish continuation as long as price holds above the 4407 support zone
- Price breaks above 4411 signals continuation strength
- Upside extension targets the 4430 resistance area, where profit-taking is likely to emerge
Alternative Entry
- A controlled pullback into the 4400 psychological zone can offer a secondary long opportunity
Execution Guidance
- Define structure on the 15–5 minute charts
- Execute entries on 3–1 minute confirmation
- Avoid chasing extended candles; wait for re-accumulation or breakout acceptance
Invalidation
- A sustained break and hold below 4400 would weaken the immediate bullish bias and signal a pause in momentum.