Weekly Macro Prep: Key Catalysts Driving Global Markets

Introduction

A new month brings a fresh wave of opportunities, and December opens with one of the strongest macro lineups in weeks.
With Jerome Powell, global inflation updates, labor data, and PCE hitting this week, markets are preparing for a decisive shift in sentiment. Staying adaptive and tuned into MRKT will be crucial as volatility resurfaces.

Table of Contents

1. Powell Opens December: The Speech That Sets the Tone
2. PMI & ISM: Low-Impact Data Unless Surprises Hit
3. Tuesday Macro: Eurozone Inflation, EU Labor, Australia GDP
4. Wednesday Pulse Check: Services PMI & ADP
5. Thursday’s Consumption Signals: EU Retail Sales + US Claims
6. Friday Finale: Eurozone GDP, Canada Jobs, US PCE
7. Weekly Market Outlook & MRKT Takeaway

1. Powell Opens December: The Speech That Sets the Tone

December begins with Jerome Powell during NY session hours, and markets are pricing nearly 90% probability of a December rate cut. His tone will determine whether this expectation holds or is challenged.

Scenario Breakdown

• Neutral→ Bullish for Risk Assets
  Even a neutral stance may be interpreted as tacit confirmation of a coming cut, pushing indices and risk assets higher.
• Hawkish → USD Strength & Risk Pullback
  If Powell highlights resilient labor trends, stable NFP performance, or persistent inflation pressures, markets may reprice toward a rate hold, strengthening the dollar.

2. PMI & ISM: Low-Impact Data Unless Surprises Hit

Final PMIs rarely shift sentiment unless revisions are significant.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged, only a major deviation would introduce directional volatility.

3. Tuesday Macro: Eurozone Inflation, EU Labor, Australia GDP

Eurozone CPI

Expected to tick up toward 2.20%, partly from tariff effects.
A print near this level implies:

• ECB likely holds rates for longer;
• Short-term EUR support;

Unemployment should remain around 6.30%, showing stable conditions.

Australia GDP

Projected to firm slightly, reinforcing the RBA’s hold-until-inflation-normalizes stance.
Supports AUD resilience, especially against a softening USD.

4. Wednesday Pulse Check: Services PMI & ADP Employment

Services PMI is scheduled to be released for several countries and it's an important data since it's closely tied to inflation trends. Even final figures can move markets if revisions are substantial.

ADP Employment (Key Focus)

MRKT projects a drop toward 30k, weaker than prior (40k) but above investor expectations (20k).
A soft number would:

• Support Fed easing expectations;
• Pressure the USD;
• Boost risk sentiment;

5. Thursday’s Signals: EU Retail Sales

Eurozone Retail Sales

Expected to rise to ~1.20%, mainly drive by holiday shopping momentum.

The EUR would still see strength as then it shows that the consumer activity is stil strong so there isn't any reason for now for the central bank to further cut rates for now.

6. Friday Finale: Eurozone GDP, Canada Jobs, US PCE

• Eurozone GDP: Expected unchanged → limited directional effect
• Canada Labor Market: Expected to weaken → CAD pressure, rising BoC cut expectations
• US PCE: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
  • Expected to rise 2.70% → ~2.80%
  • Upside surprise = USD strength + delayed easing path

7. Weekly Market Outlook & MRKT Takeaway

A dense macro calendar, central bank catalysts, inflation data, and labor signals all point toward increasing volume and fresh volatility.
Expect dynamic sessions with rapid repricing as markets digest each release.

Stay vigilant, stay adaptive, and keep MRKT open, this week rewards traders who move with the data, not after it.