Weekly Market Recap: NOV 02-07, 2025

This past week, markets focused on global PMI releases and U.S. labor data that delivered mixed signals. While some figures hinted at resilience, others underscored weakening demand, keeping traders cautious amid shifting central bank expectations.

Table of Contents

1. Australia: Inflation and RBA Outlook
2. Canada: Manufacturing and Labor market
3. United States: PMI, Labor Data and Consumer Sentiment
4. New Zealand: Job Market Softens
5. Eurozone: PPI and Retail Trends
6. United Kingdom: BoE Dovish Tilt
7. United States: Sentiment and Fed Tone
8. Market Overview and Outlook Ahead

1. Australia: Inflation and RBA Outlook

Australia’s inflation rose to 3.1% from 3%, confirming persistent price pressures. The RBA kept rates at 3.6%, reiterating a data-dependent stance as inflation remains sticky and the labor market tight.

2. Canada: Manufacturing and Labor market

Canada’s Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.6, just below the neutral 50 mark, signaling a mild contraction and ongoing softness across the sector.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% from 7.1%, and employment increased by 66k, underscoring a firm job market and reducing urgency for near-term policy easing.

3. United States: PMI, Labor Data and Consumer Sentiment

The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 (from 49.5), reinforcing a contractionary trend, though prices paid dropped to 58, supporting expectations for eventual Fed rate cuts.
Meanwhile, ADP employment rose by 42k, beating forecasts, led by gains in health and trade sectors. The S&P Services PMI improved to 52.4, but employment stayed in contraction at 48.2, and rising service prices (70) added to inflation concerns.
Nevertheless the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.3, below all expectations, reflecting ongoing inflation and fiscal concerns.
Fed officials maintained a mixed tone, balancing hawkish caution with dovish acknowledgment, subtly pushing back on December rate-cut bets.

4. New Zealand: Job Market Softens

New Zealand’s unemployment ticked up to 5.3% (from 5.2%) while employment was flat.
The Services PMI eased to 52.5, signaling slower momentum and supporting the RBNZ’s cautious normalization path.

5. Eurozone: PPI and Retail Trends

Eurozone PPI improved from -0.6% to -0.2%, driven by stronger consumer goods prices, but remained in deflation. Retail sales rose 1% versus 1.6% prior, showing softer demand ahead of Black Friday.

6. United Kingdom: BoE Dovish Tilt

The Bank of England held rates at 4%, with four members favoring deeper cuts, signaling a dovish bias. Governor Bailey’s neutral tone however minimized the market impact.

7. Market Overview and Outlook Ahead

Market activity was muted. Stocks and commodities moved little, while the U.S. dollar index surged to 100.2, its highest since August 2025, before easing on profit-taking near week’s end.

The upcoming week features key data: UK and Australian labor reports, Japan’s PPI, and GDP figures for the UK and Eurozone.
U.S. data will be delayed due to the government shutdown, but multiple Fed speeches are expected to guide sentiment.

Conclusion

Global data stayed mixed, balancing weak manufacturing with firm services and sticky inflation. Markets remain cautious, awaiting upcoming labor and GDP figures for clearer direction, stay tuned with MRKT for concise, real-time coverage.