Weekly Market Recap: SEP 22-26, 2025

The week of September 22–26, 2025, delivered a series of critical economic releases that shaped market sentiment worldwide. Stronger-than-expected U.S. growth, resilient inflation readings, and a wave of global PMI reports highlighted diverging economic paths. Meanwhile, central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, maintained a cautious stance while preparing markets for potential policy adjustments.

This recap presents the week’s developments in chronological order, allowing a clear view of how fundamentals guided global markets.

Table of Contents

• September 22 – Chicago Fed National Activity Index
• September 23 – Global PMI Releases (Australia, Eurozone, UK, U.S.)
• September 24 – Japan PMI Data
• September 25 – U.S. Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, U.S. GDP, and BOJ Meeting Minutes
• September 26 – U.S. PCE Inflation
• September 22–26 – Federal Reserve Speeches
• Next week in Focus

September 22 – Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The week began with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), a broad measure of U.S. economic growth covering production, employment, housing, and consumption.

• The index improved to -0.12, reflecting stronger momentum in production and employment.
• Housing and consumption weakened further, keeping the overall index below its long-term average.

The data pointed to modest but uneven growth, with pockets of resilience balanced by consumer weakness.

September 23 – Global PMI Releases

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings revealed shifting trends across key economies.

Australia

• Manufacturing PMI: 51.2, signaling slower expansion due to weak exports and softer business sentiment.
• Services PMI: 52.0, down sharply from 55.8, reflecting cooling domestic conditions.

Eurozone

• Manufacturing PMI: 49.5, falling into contraction after the steepest decline in new orders this year.
• Services PMI: 51.4, the strongest of 2025, driven by higher demand and employment growth.

United Kingdom

• Manufacturing PMI: 46.2, hurt by weaker domestic demand and supply disruptions in the auto sector.
• Services PMI: 51.9, easing from 54.2, but remaining in modest expansion.

United States

• Manufacturing PMI: 52.0, down slightly from 53.0, showing steady but slowing growth as exports and hiring softened.
• Service PMI: 53.9 as the sector saw its weakest rise in orders in three months, as softer household demand outweighed emerging strength in overseas sales.

September 24 – Japan PMI Data

Japan’s economy continued to show contrasting signals between manufacturing and services.

• Manufacturing PMI: 48.4, the 14th straight month of contraction, weighed down by falling orders and output.
• Services PMI: 53.0, holding in expansion, supported by domestic activity despite weaker overseas demand.

The divergence highlighted persistent challenges for Japan’s export-driven economy, with services providing the main source of stability.

September 25 – U.S. Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, GDP, and BOJ Minutes

Thursday brought a wave of high-impact releases that influenced both currency and commodity markets.

Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods

• Initial jobless claims: 218,000, down from 232,000, underscoring labor market strength.
• Durable goods orders: +2.9%, far exceeding forecasts and signaling robust investment.

U.S. GDP (Q3 Preliminary)

• Growth reached 3.8%, stronger than both expectations and the prior quarter.
• The solid result lifted the U.S. dollar from key support levels, while gold shifted into a secondary phase of market structure as safe-haven demand eased.

Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes

• Policymakers stressed the importance of monitoring U.S. conditions, given the interconnected economies.
• One member suggested further rate hikes could be warranted if Japan’s inflation stays above 2% and the U.S. economy holds firm.
• The overall tone reflected cautious but steady progress toward policy normalization.

September 26 – U.S. PCE Inflation

The week closed with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

• Headline PCE: 2.7% year-over-year.
• Core PCE: 2.9%, unchanged from the prior month.

Both readings met expectations, confirming a steady disinflation process while maintaining healthy growth momentum. Markets interpreted the results as consistent with gradual Fed easing later in the year.

September 22–26 – Federal Reserve Speeches

Federal Reserve officials delivered a coordinated message across the week.

• They emphasized support for a cooling labor market.
• They highlighted the need for a measured pace of policy adjustment.
• They prepared markets for the possibility of additional rate cuts if growth or employment weakens.

The alignment between Fed communication and economic data reinforced expectations for a careful pivot toward easing while maintaining vigilance on inflation risks.

Next Week in Focus

Next week’s calendar is busy, with several important data points to watch.
Key highlights include:
• Eurozone inflation is expected at 2.3%, driven by energy and tariffs, though the ECB is likely to hold its stance;
• ADP jobs may slow to 30K, signaling continued labor weakness, while PMI readings refine sector momentum;
• JOLTS Job Openings and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) in focus, with NFP expected to decline and unemployment steady at 4.3%.

Conclusion

The week of September 22–26, 2025, underscored the resilience of the U.S. economy, persistent global divergences, and the delicate balance central banks are navigating.
Strong U.S. growth, steady inflation, and resilient labor data supported the dollar, while central bank caution kept risk sentiment in check. As markets head into October, investors remain focused on whether global growth can sustain momentum amid tightening financial conditions and ongoing policy recalibration.