What Happened This Week on Gold (XAUUSD) with MRKT

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. The Macro Backdrop
3. MRKT’s Sentiment and Drivers
4. The Technical Picture
5. Weekly Key Takeaways
6. Conclusion

Introduction

Gold (XAU/USD) ended the week consolidating around $3,650/oz, hovering just shy of record highs. Price action was shaped by three core dynamics: Fed rate cut expectations, weak US labor market data, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

MRKT’s dashboards revealed how each of these forces interacted across fundamentals, positioning, and sentiment, giving traders a complete view of the market’s heartbeat.

The Macro Backdrop

The week kicked off with revisions to the Nonfarm Payrolls series and fresh signs of labor market stress. US jobless claims jumped to 263k, the highest level in nearly four years. This reinforced the idea that the US economy is cooling and pushed traders to price in deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts.

At the same time, inflation data gave mixed messages. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in steady at 2.9% YoY, while Producer Prices (PPI) fell short of expectations, with both monthly and yearly prints slipping into negative territory.

👉 Translation: CPI held firm, but weakening PPI hinted at pipeline disinflation. Together, these numbers bolstered the case for monetary easing.

Overlaying this were geopolitical flashpoints, heightened Middle East tensions and renewed Russian drone attacks in Ukraine. These themes sustained safe-haven demand even as equities rallied.

The week was dominated by US labor weakness, inflation releases, and profit-taking after record highs. MRKT’s Candle Analysis shows how each event shaped Gold’s intraday moves.

Monday, Sept 8 - Weak US Jobs Data since Friday

• NFP showed only 22k jobs added, unemployment rising to 4.3%.
• MRKT Candle Analysis: Gold surged above $3,600, consolidating higher as markets priced in up to three Fed cuts by year-end.
• Relevant news: “Gold rises to record-high as USD struggles after dismal jobs data.”

Tuesday, Sept 9 - NFP Revision & Geopolitics

• Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision showed sharper job weakness.
• Gold spiked to fresh highs near $3,650, before profit-taking hit.
• MRKT flagged extreme overbought signals and technical fatigue.
• Relevant news: “US payrolls growth revised sharply lower”, “Oil spikes after Israel strikes in Qatar.”

Wednesday, Sept 10 - PPI Misses Forecast

• US PPI came in weaker: –0.1% MoM vs +0.3% forecast.
• Initial support for Gold flipped to selling as traders reassessed inflation risks.
• MRKT Candle Analysis: Gold reversed from record highs, profit-taking triggered intraday correction.
• Relevant news: “Producer prices slip in August on cheaper services.”

Thursday, Sept 11 - CPI Beats Forecast, Jobless Claims Rise

• CPI held firm at 2.9% YoY, but weekly jobless claims spiked to 263k.
• MRKT AI Analysis: Mixed signals balanced inflation risk against labor weakness → consolidation between $3,620–$3,640.
• Safe-haven flows persisted amid geopolitics.

MRKT’s Sentiment and Drivers

MRKT’s Sentiment Analysis quantified the market narrative:

• Fed rate cut bets: 40% weight.
• Geopolitical risk: 30%.
• Inflation data: 20%.
• Dollar weakness: 10%.

This breakdown showed that traders were laser-focused on the Fed. Weak labor = dovish bias = lower USD opportunity cost = Gold support.

The AI Sentiment Index printed 68 (Active Buying), flagging a broader risk-on environment across equities. Yet Gold still rallied, proving that dovish monetary expectations and geopolitical risk provided enough tailwinds to keep the metal in demand.

The Technical Picture

From a chart perspective, Gold made headlines on Monday as weak US labor data fueled a breakout above the $3,600 handle, driving price to a new all-time high at $3,675.

After that surge, Gold defended support around $3,600–$3,620 and repeatedly retested the $3,650 area. MRKT’s technical dashboard showed a weekly bias Bullish, a daily bias Neutral, and an intraday Slightly Bullish stance, reflecting the market’s hesitation after such an extended run.

Upside targets remain near $3,700 - $3,800, but as MRKT flagged, buyers are showing caution at resistance with momentum starting to cool.

Weekly Key Takeaways

• Fed policy remains the dominant driver - MRKT gave rate cut bets the heaviest weight (40%).
• Labor market weakness supports Gold - jobless claims at 4-year highs reinforced the dovish narrative.
• Inflation data added volatility - steady CPI vs weak PPI kept traders on edge, but the bias leaned dovish.
• Geopolitics sustained safe-haven flows - ensuring dips were consistently bought.
• Technicals aligned with fundamentals - Gold held support above $3,600 after printing a fresh ATH at $3,675, with upside targets at $3,700–$3,800.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to next week’s US FOMC meeting and Interest Rate Decision. This is the key event institutions are waiting for, as it will shape the policy path into year-end and determine whether the dovish bets driving Gold can fully materialize.

Conclusion

This week, Gold’s price action wasn’t noise. MRKT showed how labor weakness, dovish policy bets, and geopolitical risk converged to keep the metal resilient near record highs.

For traders, the lesson is clear: you need more than a chart. You need the context. MRKT’s Candle Analysis, Sentiment Index, and Economic Calendar provide exactly that, turning weekly chaos into clarity.

👉 Every candle has a reason. Every week has a story. Find yours with MRKT.