XAUUSD (GC) Fundamental Analysis + Technical Analysis - 09 December 2025

Gold Steadies Ahead of CPI & FOMC: Market Eyes Final Macro Drivers of 2025

Gold holds near $4,180 as markets enter a critical macro window: FOMC rate decision, and several high-impact risk events are set to dictate directional conviction into year-end.
Today’s move remains contained, with MRKT showing a slightly bullish intraday bias supported by stable real yields, softer USD tone, and 2026 Fed cut projections anchoring expectations.

1. Fundamental Breakdown, What’s Driving XAUUSD Right Now

Gold continues to consolidate as the market prices an 87–88% probability of a December 10 FOMC rate cut, while traders increasingly look beyond Wednesday’s meeting toward 2026’s projected 2–4 additional cuts.

Momentum stays muted due to positioning ahead of CPI, but liquidity remains supportive thanks to falling real yields and broad risk-on flows in equities and tech.

Key macro forces today:

• Rate-cut expectations dominant: Markets hold Fed cut odds near 87–88% despite mixed data, keeping downside limited.
• Real yields ease into mid-December: Lower yields favor gold as investors rotate into duration-sensitive assets.
• USD weakness on dovish Fed divergence: The dollar stays soft versus G10, supporting gold’s stability.
• Geopolitical risk premium remains intact: Russia–Ukraine and Venezuela continue to support safe-haven flows.
• BOJ rate-hike risk introduces cross-asset tension: Yen strength can reduce USD-denominated gold appeal, but effect remains secondary.

Upcoming catalysts, FOMC, BoC, and Fed speeches are expected to define the December trend.
MRKT’s Catalyst Dashboard highlights a rare cluster of high-impact events that historically trigger volatility spikes.

2. Technical Outlook, Clean Scenarios for Today

Gold is trading inside a well-defined intraday range, with buyers defending $4,160 and resistance forming near $4,200–$4,220.

Bullish scenarios

• Pullback buys around $4,165–$4,175
  Supports a continuation move into $4,200 and $4,220 if CPI cools and Fed guidance stays dovish.
• Break & Retest above $4,220
  Confirms bullish extension toward $4,260, aligning with MRKT’s intraday upside targets.

Bearish scenario

• Only selling below $4,160
  Opens the door to $4,130 retests and deeper pressure if CPI prints hot and real yields climb.

3. MRKT Insights, What the Platform Highlights Today

MRKT shows:

• Slightly bullish intraday bias
  Driven by Fed cut expectations, easing yields, and soft USD.
• Cautious Optimism on Sentiment Index (58)
  Tech and cyclicals rotate higher while defensives unwind.
• High-impact cluster of catalysts
  FOMC → BoC → Fed rate decision → all within 72 hours.

This combination historically precedes strong directional moves on gold.