XAUUSD (GC) Fundamental + Technical Analysis - 12 December 2025

Table of Contents
- Powell’s Dovish Tone Sets the Year-End Mood
- Market Impact: Equities, USD, and Gold
- Today’s Macro Focus: UK Data and Fed Speakers
- Gold Technical Outlook: Bullish Structure Intact
- Trade Setup: Watching the 4250–4255 Zone
- Conclusion & Final CTA
1. Powell’s Dovish Tone Sets the Year-End Mood
Following Powell’s latest remarks at the FOMC meeting, markets leaned decisively toward a more dovish interpretation.
Investors shifted expectations toward one rate cut further out in 2026, easing off the idea of an extended pause across early 2026, including the January window.
The statement and SEP projections remained broadly unchanged, leaving market participants to extract direction primarily from qualitative tone rather than new policy signals.
As investors push toward year-end, the environment has become one of squeezing every marginal clue from policymakers.
2. Market Impact: Equities, USD, and Gold
The market reaction was immediate and directional:
- Equities printed new all-time highs, reflecting improved risk conditions.
- The USD weakened, extending the decline into the following session.
- Gold broke above its intraday range, showing strong, initiative-driven buying.
This bullish extension in Gold and risk assets was further supported by yesterday’s weaker initial jobless claims, reinforcing the broader theme of cooling labor conditions.
3. Today’s Macro Focus: UK Data and Fed Speakers

The only meaningful early-session data release comes from the United Kingdom, with updates on GDP and industrial production. Both are unlikely to exert major market influence on the safe haven.
However, multiple Federal Reserve representatives speaking during the New York session could materially shape intraday tone. Markets will be paying close attention to whether their guidance aligns with Powell’s dovish lean.
4. Gold Technical Outlook: Bullish Structure Intact

Gold’s market structure remains decisively bullish.
MRKT’s structure-mapping highlights a clean continuation trend with buyers firmly in control.
For today’s session, gold may extend into a deeper pullback during the London hours.
The key zone: 4250–4255, a high-probability re-entry area where buyers may reload in line with trend continuation.
Otherwise if the buyers continue to remain in control, there is a probability that price can just continue higher breaking the order block high at $4282 or a possible small pullback into $4266.
This zone aligns with MRKT’s institutional-level mapping, where intraday structure and psychological rotation converge.
See the Setup Before It Forms
MRKT's live market structure lets you identify pullback zones before the rotation begins, including today's 4250-4255 gold pocket.
7. Conclusion & Final CTA
Powell’s dovish tilt continues to ripple across markets, lifting risk assets and supporting gold’s strong bullish leg into year-end.
With a clean structure and defined pullback zones, the directional bias remains intact.
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