MRKTOct 28 · 2:00 PM ET

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FOMC Day

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What's priced for Oct 28

Updated Oct 13, 2026

80% hold

20% hike

Decision
Wed Oct 28 · 2:00 PM ET
Live with the founders
1:45 PM ET
Press conference
2:30 PM ET
Current rate
3.75–4.00%
Last move
+25bp · Sep 16

The setup

A hold is priced.
The words aren't.

The Fed hiked on Sep 16. Markets give another hike in October a small chance, so Wednesday comes down to what the statement and Warsh actually say.

  1. 01

    Hawkish hold

    No change, door stays open

    “Further firming” stays in the statement. Another hike is still on the table for December.

  2. 02

    Dovish hold

    No change, softer words

    “Well positioned to wait” shows up. The Fed signals it may be done for now.

  3. 03

    Surprise hike

    Rates up again

    A second hike in a row. The outcome almost nobody expects.

What you get

In your inbox · now

The FOMC brief

  1. 01The setup. Where rates are and what's priced for Oct 28.
  2. 02What the Fed is watching. Inflation, jobs and the CPI print on Oct 14.
  3. 03The three scenarios. What each one means for the Fed's path.
  4. 04The phrases to watch. Plus the Fed Tone Cheat Sheet.

It lands in your inbox the moment you sign up. We update it every few days as the data comes in, with the final version the day before the meeting.

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Fed Tone Cheat Sheet

  • “Some further policy firming may be appropriate.”Hawkish

    More hikes are on the table.

  • “We are well positioned to wait.”Dovish

    A pause signal.

Fifteen Fed phrases, tagged hawkish, neutral or dovish, with a tally to keep score as you hear them.

Wed Oct 28 · 1:45 PM ET · 1:45 PM ET your time

Live with the founders

  1. 1:45The setup. What's priced and the phrases to watch.
  2. 2:00The statement. September vs October wording, side by side.
  3. 2:30The press conference. Warsh, read live.
  4. 3:05The read. What it means for December, then a first look.

Nilabh and Jev read the statement and the press conference as they happen. Stay to the end for a first look at what we've been building.

Wed Oct 28 · 2:00 PM ET

Read it before
the Fed decides.

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