NQ dropped almost 2,000 points on Thursday. From around 28,300 to 26,400 in one day.
Nvidia is down more than 20% from its October high. And on Sunday, with the market closed, Nvidia's board opened an investigation into Jensen Huang.
Monday opens on news nobody has traded yet. Tuesday is CPI.
NQ: bearish until something changes
Strong jobless claims on Thursday pushed the market to price a more aggressive Fed, and tech took the hit. Friday's bounce was weak and stalled under 27,250.
On MRKT the bias is bearish continuation, with resistance at 28,250 and a target level at 26,000. Smart Money Flows on the 30m sit at -11, and the trend is down on every timeframe from the 5m to the 4h. Price and flows point the same way.
The macro driver: a Fed that wants to hike
The market prices a 76% chance of a 25bp hike on December 9, according to MRKT's Interest Rate Tracker.
Strong jobs gave the Fed room. Daly said a hike is likely even with tech falling. And the Iran headlines keep oil and inflation risk alive. Tech feels that first, because it's priced on profits years away.
Nvidia: bearish, with a reversal risk
Nvidia closed Friday at $186.64 after topping around $240 in early October. MRKT has it bearish, with resistance at $194, support at $181.50 and a target at $179.
The reversal risk flag is real though. Earnings land on Tuesday, November 17, consensus EPS is $2.47, and Nvidia beat the last 6 quarters in a row. Sitting on support one week before earnings is where shorts get caught.
Then there's the weekend news. The board opened an independent probe into reports that Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation, after Bloomberg and Axios reported he admitted a relationship with a suspected Chinese spy. The board says nothing points to secrets being compromised and it still backs him. Expect a volatile Monday open, with $181.50 as the level to watch.
CPI is the one that matters
Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET. Headline is expected at 3.9%, up from 3.7%. Core is expected at 2.8%, up from 2.6%.
Watch core month over month. A print at 0.3% or higher means inflation is spreading past oil, and the December hike is pretty much locked.
Two ways it can go
If CPI comes in hot or in line, NQ heads back to 26,400, then 26,000. Nvidia breaks $181.50 and goes for $179.
If CPI comes in soft, with core at 0.1% or lower, the market starts pricing a Fed that skips December. NQ squeezes into 27,800 to 28,250, and Nvidia reclaiming $194 before earnings would burn a lot of shorts.
Walk into Tuesday with a plan
CPI moves fast. By the time the headline is read, the spike is already gone
FAQ
What is the bias on NQ for the week of November 9, 2026? MRKT's bias on NQ is bearish continuation. Resistance is 28,250 and the target level is 26,000. Smart Money Flows read -11 on the 30m chart.
When is the October 2026 CPI report? Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Headline is forecast at 3.9% year over year and core at 2.8%.
When does Nvidia report earnings? Tuesday, November 17, 2026, after the market close. Consensus EPS is $2.47.
Why is Nvidia's board investigating Jensen Huang? The board opened an independent probe on November 8 after reports that Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. It said it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised.
What are the odds of a Fed hike in December 2026? About 76% for a 25bp hike at the December 9 meeting, based on prediction-market pricing shown on MRKT's Interest Rate Tracker as of November 8.