Single event backtesting tells you how a market reacted to a given event. Multi condition fundamental backtesting tells you how a market reacted when an event occurred alongside specific positioning, sentiment, and macro regime conditions simultaneously. That's the difference between 'gold goes up on hot CPI' and 'gold goes up on hot CPI when large spec positioning is not at an extreme and the dollar is in a downtrend.' The second rule is tradeable. MRKT's Fundamental Backtesting builds rules like the second one.
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Knowing that gold often rips on hot CPI is not the same as knowing when that reaction is crowded, dollar aligned, and statistically repeatable. Fundamental Backtesting layers event, positioning, and regime so you build rules you can actually size, not just anecdotes.
Condition sets, assets, and the kind of edge multi layer rules unlock.
| Condition Set | Asset | Historical Edge Example |
|---|---|---|
| CPI shock + USD not at positioning extreme | Gold | Higher win rate than CPI shock alone, avoids crowded trade reversals |
| NFP beat + risk-on regime + DXY uptrend | USD/JPY | Confirms fundamental, sentiment, and trend alignment |
| FOMC hold (hawkish lean) + Gold COT not at extreme longs | XAU/USD | Filters out instances where the move is already priced into positioning |
| Earnings beat + sector COT not extreme | Sector ETF | Identifies beats where institutional positioning still has room to build |
Stack conditions, validate sample size, deploy systematically.
Combine three layers: what the event printed (beat/miss/shock), what the positioning data shows (COT at extreme or not, retail sentiment), and what the macro regime is (risk on/off, dollar trend, rate environment). The intersection of all three produces a higher confidence trading rule than any single condition.
MRKT shows the number of historical instances your combined conditions have occurred. A rule with 3 historical instances is not statistically significant. A rule with 12+ instances begins to have statistical weight. MRKT flags sample size for every multi condition query so traders can assess the reliability of the results.
Save your validated multi condition rules and build a systematic trading plan around them. When the conditions are met in real time trading, MRKT can alert you, combining the backtest intelligence with the live economic calendar and sentiment dashboard.
From one line event stats to validated multi factor rules.
One input rules, noisy and often crowded
No sample size discipline on combined queries
Backtest lives in a spreadsheet, dies in live trading
Event + positioning + regime intersection
Instance counts and significance flags per rule
Save, plan, and alert when conditions stack live
"MRKT is the first platform that actually made macro usable. I don't need an economics background, I just see the bias, the risk zones, and how the market is likely to react."
Adel D.
FX & Indices Trader
"I avoided macro for years because it felt too complex. MRKT breaks everything down so clearly I can understand market context in seconds. It fits perfectly with my technical setups."
Vigneshwar S.
Futures Trader
"I used to ignore red folder news completely. Now I know how to trade it."
Karan U.
Forex Trader
Multi condition fundamental backtesting tests trading rules built from multiple simultaneous inputs: an economic event (e.g., CPI beat), a positioning condition (e.g., gold COT large specs not at an extreme), and a macro regime filter (e.g., dollar in a downtrend). The combined condition produces a more precise and historically reliable trading rule than testing any single condition in isolation, because real trading opportunities require alignment of multiple factors, not just one.
The standard Backtest Fundamentals feature tests single event conditions: 'how did gold react when CPI beat the bank forecast range?' The Fundamental Backtesting feature adds positioning and regime layers: 'how did gold react when CPI beat the range AND large spec COT positioning was not at an extreme AND the dollar was in a downtrend?' The multi condition query filters out lower probability instances and identifies the highest conviction historical setups.
MRKT currently supports up to three simultaneous conditions: one economic event condition, one positioning/sentiment condition, and one macro regime condition. The three condition combination typically reduces the historical sample size sufficiently to identify distinct, high conviction setups while maintaining enough instances for statistical assessment.
MRKT flags when a query returns fewer than 8 historical instances. Below 8 instances, the results are indicative rather than statistically reliable. In these cases, consider relaxing one of the conditions (e.g., widening the positioning extreme threshold from top 10% to top 25%) to increase the sample size. MRKT shows the impact of each condition on sample size so traders can calibrate their rules appropriately.
This feature is designed for traders who have been using single event backtesting and want to add precision, identifying the specific conditions under which event driven trades have the highest historical win rate, rather than trading every instance of an event regardless of context. It's the bridge between reactive event trading and systematic, rule based fundamental trading.
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